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# Why are the sports lines of the major bookmakers almost the same?

Q: There should be very few bookmakers (betting platforms) that can actually offer odds independently. Most bookmakers fine-tune on the basis of others to form their own unique markets. Just take basketball and football as an example, the odds offered by all bookmakers are very close. I don’t believe that the bets calculated by the actuaries of the major bookmakers that can open the book independently are so similar. What is the reason?

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- If the odds gap is too large, there may be room for arbitrage. For example, if a football bet wins or loses, the odds should be roughly the reciprocal of the guessing probability. Generally speaking, the reciprocal sum of the odds is greater than 1, and the more part is equivalent to the casino's rake. However, if the odds of different casinos are different, when the gap is very large, there is a situation where the reciprocal sum of the win, loss, and draw of different casinos is selected, and their reciprocal sum is less than 1. At this time, betting proportionally according to the reciprocal of their respective odds can ensure stability. Earn or lose. In this way, when the casino odds are different, someone can use this strategy to arbitrage, and the amount invested makes the dynamic odds close. The lower the casino rake, the greater the arbitrage space and the smaller the odds difference.

- In one sentence: The price fluctuates around the value. Theoretical quotation is calculated by betradar and other betting solution institutions with mathematical formulas and recommended to gaming companies. More than 80% of gaming companies will refer to it. According to different service areas, different user groups, and different company scales The odds are surprisingly consistent.

——The odds are carefully set out, not casually. The two decimal places after the decimal point may represent millions of funds for the bookmaker, so the bookmaker's odds are roughly the same. The fine-tuning of the odds is the betting situation of the bookmaker for its own company, so that the profit can be maximized. And I believe that there is also information exchange between bookmakers, so it's not difficult to explain why bookmakers' odds are roughly the same.

——It was different before. Later, to prevent players from hedging, major companies unified the odds.

——Avoid speculators and make money based on the difference between the two markets. For example, if two pairs are of equal strength, if the odds of the home team of home a are high, and the odds of the visiting team of home b are high. Speculators can bet according to the ratio and make a steady profit. All of the above is nonsense

——Probably the logic is like this. 1. A large company like William Hill has a group of mathematical geniuses to conduct probability research (of course, some people are responsible for manipulating the game, this is real) to ensure that the odds offered can make money, and the later adjustment is aimed at those who have of big buyers also have insider information to make heavy bets, which will reduce payouts (such as lowering the main win), and attract casual buyers with seemingly higher returns (such as increasing the draw). In short, most of the games of a company like William Hill are profitable. According to the online statement, the few games that lose are welfare, and the profits are given to players. 2. Okay. With the very scientific payouts of big companies, other small companies can do it very well. They only need to copy the general system, and then increase their payouts (for example, the win, draw and loss are 0.1 higher than William's) to attract bets, but even if the payout is increased , it just makes the money you make a little less, and you can still make a steady profit without losing it.

- This question needs to be answered in two parts, the odds are similar to avoid arbitrage, which I think is beyond doubt. Also, the odds are similar, and I'm afraid they only seem so at first glance. Are the 50% and 47% probabilities about the same, or are they much worse? If you think that's about the same probability, then if you can outperform the dealer 3% of the time, it's already an amazing gain. Converting 50% and 47% into odds of 2.0 and 2.127, respectively, reflects a much poorer return, equivalent to a 12% return in a single game, and a return of 12 times the stake for a hundred bets. I am afraid that few players can achieve a 12% income in a single game. Conversely, with the same 2.0 odds, two different companies, such as A with a 92% return rate and B with a 98% return rate, have implied probabilities of 46% and 49% respectively, which can lead to other companies. Three o'clock is already amazing.

——In order: 1. Don’t believe it, the odds offered by a few large companies are originally similar, unless a certain bookmaker has exclusively obtained information that is enough to affect the probability of the outcome (injury of important players, etc.). The probabilistic estimates of the results from various methods vary, but are sufficiently small (perhaps no more than 10%, or lower). 2. On this basis, small companies will copy the betting market and appropriately increase the odds to attract bettors, as long as the total payout rate does not exceed 100%, the craziest I have seen is 97%+. 3. The bettor will choose according to the existing information - the odds of each place where you can bet. A house wins 2.5, B wins 2.75, both parties have good reputation. Do I have any reason to vote for A? 4. All bookmakers will adjust the odds according to the bet amount to ensure that they are in a risk-free state. After the above-mentioned B family receives more bets, the odds will naturally decrease, while the trend of A family is the opposite. 5. For certain large orders, the gaming company will use a method similar to reinsurance to bet to other gaming companies to share the risk. This amount is similar, and then return to step 4. Therefore, the distribution of the major spinach is almost the same, which is a normal thing.

——What are the previous answers saying? They lack the most basic understanding of the operation of the gaming company. 1 The odds are approaching first because the return rate of each company is similar, otherwise the one with the lower return will have no business at all. Each company engages in some promotional activities, resulting in slight differences in the actual return rate, plus market friction, so the odds will not be exactly the same. 2. The only technical content of the gaming company is to open the initial loss. After the opening, the odds are adjusted according to the betting situation. This work is very simple, and it is enough to compile a small program. 3 Arbitrage is impossible at all. Arbitrage has to have positive expectations. All lottery buys are negative expectations, and any combination of negative expectations is still negative.

——As a handicap depth lover, the answer is as follows: First, look through the history, you can find the early water aquarium, through the difference in odds of different companies, to make a profit from the water. For example, the water level of team A's tie is 2.04, and in another company, the opponent team B's tie is 2.07. If you find such a handicap, and betting on both handicap, it can be a risk-free arbitrage. , which was a fact of the early gaming development period. Second, after entering the millennium, the aquarium game disappeared, and the betting companies began to have almost the same odds (inconsistencies can be found occasionally, very few). The important thing is that several major bookmakers, such as Wade, 365, Big Macs like William Hill will open earlier than small bookmakers, which is very instructive to small bookmakers. With the continuous improvement of the market accuracy of big bookmakers, the ability of small bookmakers is beyond the reach of small bookmakers. If they become the opponents of big bookmakers, they are likely to suffer heavy losses. After all, by pumping water, you will definitely make money without losing money.

——As a handicap depth lover, the answer is as follows: First, look through the history, you can find the early water aquarium, through the difference in odds of different companies, to make a profit from the water. For example, the water level of team A's tie is 2.04, and in another company, the opponent team B's tie is 2.07. If you find such a handicap, and betting on both handicap, it can be a risk-free arbitrage. , which was a fact of the early gaming development period. Second, after entering the millennium, the aquarium game disappeared, and the betting companies began to have almost the same odds (inconsistencies can be found occasionally, very few). The important thing is that several major bookmakers, such as Wade, 365, Big Macs like William Hill will open earlier than small bookmakers, which is very instructive to small bookmakers. With the continuous improvement of the market accuracy of big bookmakers, the ability of small bookmakers is beyond the reach of small bookmakers. If they become the opponents of big bookmakers, they are likely to suffer heavy losses. After all, by pumping water, you will definitely make money without losing money.