Q: It is said that the control of various initial odds by bookmakers is calculated based on a very complex mathematical model. But those who have done math and simulation should understand that for a fast-changing event like a football match, the accuracy of the results should be very low, especially for such accurate predictions as the score. The odds of the weak team winning by two goals, or the odds of the strong team 4 to 0 often reach three figures, so are these odds likely to be inflated?
From the perspective of a peripheral lottery player, assuming that in the next 10,000 games, he will undermine the team by 2 goals in every game, so he must be at a loss?
PS: I wanted to count the difference between the real probability of these handicap and the average odds through all the game data over the years, but it is really tired for the New Year’s Eve, or it is more comfortable to be a party . Also, I'm not betting on dogs.
——When the dead ball market is just opened, there is a big error. The bookmaker relies on the gambler's wager to obtain information to further adjust the odds. Therefore, the bet size of the dead ball game is smaller than that of the turf game. <br><br>In addition, because the bookmaker will have high reliability in the favored team, the odds given are generally conservative. So in markets with a fixed total payout rate, favorite longshot is a very common strategy that many professional gamblers do.
- It's possible, but gambling companies don't make money by making money. This kind of small probability event or just put a random odds, if you study carefully, you may make money. Gambling companies mainly rely on winning and losing, total goals, and Asian handicap to make money in these markets, so the odds in the initial market are not really important.
——Yeah, you can see the loopholes, but you can only buy 300 yuan, and you can only get 50 cents for shock arbitrage. The initial market was released to be corrected by smart money.
——First of all, the initial offer you see may not be the initial offer, because many gaming companies do not have the initial offer at all, and the reasons will not be elaborated. The error of the initial market (estimated market) can be solved by expanding the bid-ask spread and lowering the limit. Although football's William, Ladbrokes, and Bwin have made early losses in Europe, there is a large bid-ask difference. The three odds are very confusing and intuitive. It masks the problem of insufficient payout ratio. The example of big difference between buying and selling is clearly reflected in basketball lottery such as Tipsport, Jingcai, etc. ~ If it is based on the PK of the first time price, there is only one Pinnaclesports for reference~
——The initial market is a market opened without considering any capital entry. It is more targeted for grasping the distribution of the strength of the game. It can be said that two pairs of strength are converted into odds. As for whether there are loopholes , I think there should be very few words. After all, gaming companies rely on this to eat.
——My brother used to run a football lottery company like this, and it was very big at the time. Not only understand models, but also understand marketing. There is a football bar, where you can massage, drink, and buy all kinds of unreasonable handicap settings. Especially in the Chinese Football Lottery, the handicap was set very unreasonably at that time. For the World Cup, the data shows that the odds of a draw should actually be the lowest, because this kind of event is still a knockout, and the two sides will never attack rashly. The best guess is to guess the draw. However, the Chinese Football Lottery always has high odds for a draw, as if it is difficult to tie similar. So you can choose multiple options to achieve risk-free arbitrage. Basically everyone who invested in their company made money. After he made money, he continued to do charity, donating to poor students. At that time, their family had a World Cup and bought 2 suites. But just as the company was thriving, it was facing huge problems. After the World Cup is over, everyone will not buy football lottery. Everyone has the ability to calculate football lottery, but no one comes to bet on football. Then triggered the illegal fundraising incident. The big boss went to the United States, and my brother suddenly fell to the bottom again. He gave up his position as a regional sales manager to become a football lottery company, and now he can only live a life of selling insurance. I actually feel sorry for my brother and their company. I think in fact, many investment companies, like foreign ones, have become Wall Street upstarts with a model, which is really too difficult to achieve in China. What do you think, I don't buy it. I like to buy a house.