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Tie for Golden Probability Analysis and card type

Tie for Golden Ratio is the relative size and not absolute size of your hand to win do not win, it does not depend on how much your cards, but depending on your opponent's cards and relatively large who who is small. Nevertheless, People still want to be a "big."

What is a "big"? Learn to speak from probability, less prone to the kind of big, with some trump suit and a combination of digital special arrangement, such as leopards, along with China, gold, etc. along, even smaller than they are one pair with a single, once again is the singles.

According to the principle of permutations and combinations, 52 cards either take three have 22,100 kinds of combinations of larger cards, often the worse appear the following probability of occurrence of various licenses:

Card typeSpeciesOccurrence probability%Cumulative probability%
Leopard520.240.24
Flush480.220.45
Gold10964.965.41
Along7203.268.67
Great for with a single11525.2113.88
The pair with a single14406.5220.40
Small on with a single11525.2125.61
A band of384017.3842.99
K band on324014.6657.65
Q band on264011.9569.59
J band on21009.5079.10
10 with a pair16207.3386.43
9 with a pair12005.4391.86
8 with a pair8403.8095.66
7 with a pair5402.4498.10
6 with a pair3001.3699.46
5 with a pair1200.54100
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Remarks:

(1) because the probability is too small, this statistics does not show the leopard, specific probability flush, gold, Shun.

(2) large with one finger on the A, K, Q, J's right, the pair with a single finger 10,9,8,7,6 the right, a small pair with a single finger 5,4,3,2 right.

Not difficult to see from the above statistics, the probability of a straight flush is smaller than the leopard, the probability of cis appear smaller than the gold. That is our common size of the scale there are unreasonable. But a difference of more than two pairs of probability is very small, so we Press tentatively than the size of the old rules.

Shun took over the brand, generally very easy (8.67%), in fact, for children to get more than very good (25.61%).

Four bar Jinhua, probability of each bureau has more than Shun big emerging is 34.7%, five people this probability is 43.3%, compared with 52% six or seven individuals can reach more than 60 percent, so "people more big "This is the truth.

I would like to do some analysis on single cards, because they account for most of the card type, and they often play different roles between strength and fraud.

Deck of cards did not see that it will not have much of it we disappointed? It is our mathematical expectation is how much? Can be seen from the above table, the mathematical expectation of card brand in the K band of the in, actually, it is probably a K with a 9 and 8. In other words, two people and do not know each other cards, so if holding their own deck of cards, other than you or younger than you the probability is the same. Therefore, often said: "Ah you what's great dark, I have a smb (A) will open to you!" Some people even said, "I have a personal child (JQK) to open your" Then we'll see. Take these singles in open cattle brand, the result?

The table shows the probability ratio A large band of 25.61 percent, so there is bound to open the tip, especially the tip of the so-called Generation KQJ singles finals who did not hesitate to bring to .K not necessarily, because the mathematical expectation just in the middle. This is a watershed .K with a big win rate of about half of the above talked about K 9 8 is exactly half. The Q and J band with a chance to win it for less than half. Especially when you took J 2 3, you want to lose 80%.

Next, I would like to make some tactical analysis of gold. Why? I have already analyzed from the perspective of probability should be smaller than shun gold. Now I would like from another perspective to analyze. We all know that all singles , the probability of A is greater than with other card type, because just a pair of singles (for example A 10 4) we put it classified as A belt right, instead of 10 with a pair or 4 band right.

The leopard Heshun not have this situation, somewhat mathematical common sense will understand probability and leopard A leopard 2 is the same. Along, too, probability and probability AKQ 234 is exactly the same. This increases the uncertainties and no feasibility studies when the big game.

However, unlike gold leopard rolls, the probability of a variety of gold is different. We can understand, a pair of gold spades AK 6, we put it classified as A K gold or gold instead of 6 gold. And so on can be obtained, but the greater the probability of occurrence of the more Daikin. So we feel gold appear generally are Daikin (J above), Xiaojin probability of occurrence is very small, but there is A gold up. From this perspective, gold on Assimilation singles like color, is the study (as long as there difference in probability, we can do the research.) And it is bigger than we often prescribed along, then it is even more important position. I am here lists the various gold Probability:

Card typeSpeciesOccurrence probability%Cumulative probability%
A gold25623.3623.36
K gold21619.7143.07
Q Gold17616.0659.12
J Gold14012.7771.90
10 gold1089.8581.75
9 gold807.3089.05
8 gold565.1194.16
7 gold363.2897.45
6 gold201.8299.27
5 gold80.73100.00

We can see, A, K, Q gold accounted for nearly 60% of the gold medal-type general combat, remaining the first two people filled bet amount, and who do not want to open the inner office outsider knows, at this time Both sides are at least more than gold card type. The question is, how the two sides know each other, at least under the premise of gold, judge for yourself how much winning it?

We found that to get the leopard and the probability is very small flush (0.45%), which is 200 times before the time.Even the gold and less prone to the same ratio, leopards and flush also appears rare.We can in a known probability other is the case of gold to judge, that is to ignore the other side is the probability of leopards and flush.So Table 2 can help us.Probability example, I and the other deadlocked, I was a KQ 10 gold, then the probability of opponents than I was 23 A gold appears.26%.Similarly, we calculated our brand is known to be gold mathematical expectation, that is, Q 9 5.We can finally give the next Oscar Daikin defined: more than 95 of Q Gold Daikin even less than it is Oscar.If you are a little gold, from probabilistic terms: "You flop a".If the probability of leopards and flush Plus, the big (above gold) gold mathematical expectation is QJ 4.That is, if you at least know each other is golden, and you are QJ 4, that other than you and younger than you is the same as the probability.

The above analysis, the probability of only scientific analysis. As for actual combat, half-truths, falsehoods, psychological, courage contest science statistics can not be used. However, certainly we should first know how much your cards in the end, in order to as a basis for the use of a variety of strategies and tactics.

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